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January 29, 2007

Climate change is normal

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 10:47 am

Even George Bush Jr. is getting into the act. Seems that politicians of all stripes and even corporations want to do something to save the environment. There’s no doubt that action is needed to deal with the environment. Our well being and our children’s future depends on it. Who doesn’t want to live in a place where there is clean air, clean water and green space to run around in.

Before we all become Chicken Littles and start screaming that the sky is falling, we have to come up with a workable solution to tackle the environmental issue. Economic growth should not be sacrificed for a cleaner environment. To cut down on pollution, all we have to do is shut down the coal power plants, factories and stop driving. As a society, are we willing to drastically alter our way of living? Probably not. Without prosperity, how can we afford to develop clean technology.
Before you start believing that the world will play out like that film “The Day After Tomorrow”, some climate experts say that climate change is normal. Referring to historical data, temperatures change constantly, ocean levels rise and fall and there are severe storms. All this occured before the age of industrialization. Unfortunately, these experts get shouted down because environmentalists are interested in keeping the debate front and center so that they could get funding or hired as $300 an hour consultants.

Let’s not over react.

January 26, 2007

Ford’s loses $12.7-billion in 2006.

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 11:11 am

It is sad for me to see a company that introduced affordable vehicles to the masses take such a massive financial hit. There is no doubt that the company is in trouble. I do not like to see an American company such as Ford fail. After all, this is a company that employs thousands of people with well paying jobs. The state of Michigan would be greatly hurt if Ford does not survive.

Much of the blame has to go to Ford management. For too long, they have been producing boring, over-priced and unreliable vehicles that nobody wanted. Worst still, they totally missed the market shift towards more fuel efficient, greener vehicles. Their explanation is they did not see it coming. Given that their product lines are filled with gas guzzling trucks, Ford management got caught with their pants down. Talk about sheer incompetence!!!

What Ford badly needs are products that appeal to the buying publics. American companies has proved that they can design and build great cars. The widly successful Chrysler 300 is case in point. GM with their slew of new products demonstrate that American car companies can still be formidable competitiors. For great products, all Ford has to do is go across the Atlantic ocean. Their european division seems to got it right. Their vehicles are beautifully designed, well built and reasonably fuel efficient. So Ford, what are you waiting for?

January 25, 2007

President Bush wants America to cut gasoline consumption

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 2:12 pm

In his State of the Union Address, Bush said he wants to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 per cent over 10 years. The president wants to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil. In my opinion, the only way to get Americans to cut oil consumption is to significantly jack up the price of gasoline. Even at $3 a gallon, I think it is not enough to significantly alter our consumption habits. I believe the minimum price should be at $4 a gallon. Like anything else, if it’s priced cheap, we will waste it. If it’s expensive, we will curb our consumption and adjust accordingly.

Unfortunately, our economy is built on cheap oil. We built highways so that we can travel to work in the city from our suburban home and go shop at the malls. A sudden surge in the price of gasoline would be disruptive to our economy. Americans believe that they are entitled to cheap gas.

As Americans, we do not exercise restraint. We knew that our reliance on oil was compromising our national security, our prosperity and our environment. Yet we still continue to buy the big gas guzzling trucks. The only way to change our behavior is with significantly higher gas prices. If President Bush is serious about cutting gas consumption, he would have announced taxes on gasoline.

Ideally, higher gasoline prices should be gradually introduced so that our economy can adjust accordingly. Even if alternative energies are introduced, I serious doubt it will replace fossil burning fuels. I think it is unrealistic to think that the United States can cut consumption of gasoline. At best, we can slow down the growth rate of oil consumption. Within 10 years, I expect the American economy to be much bigger and the size of the American population to be greater. Both translate to greater oil use.

January 23, 2007

CEOs call for action against climate change

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 1:21 pm

I saw this headline on CNN yesterday. You know that climate change is real if CEOs of corporations are pushing the government for action on it. They want the government to introduce mandatory reductions in climate changing pollution and set up reduction targets. The companies calling for this include Alcoa, BP America, DuPont, GE and Caterpillar. However, major industry groups still oppose such measures.

The fact that you have some of Corporate America proposing these measures are significant. With the changes going on in our environment, it can no longer be ignored. Companies that still want to thrive in the future understand that dealing with the environment is crucial. We are probably at the point where the strain on Mother Earth is being felt. We are using the earth’s resources at an accelerated rate and more people are living the Western lifestyle. Changes to the way we live must be implemented now before it’s too late.

A stable and clean environment is vital to the well being of any society. In addition to the much talked about greenhouse emmissions, we need to deal with pollution and conservation. Individuals, businesses, corporations and governments all need to take the initiatives. Clean air, clean water and a stable source of energy are what we want to leave for our kids and their children.

January 22, 2007

Beijing gets McDonald’s drive-thru

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 2:04 pm

Once I saw this USA Today headline, it makes me realize that the world is gradually becoming the same. It seems that everybody aspires to live like us. Have a big house, have 2.3 kids and two cars in the garage. As Americans, we can pat ourselves on the back that we had a part in influencing the way the world’s most populous county lives. But what does this mean for the future of our country if the Chinese and others begin to live and consume like us?

Either way, it will undeniably change the way we live and conduct business. The American economy is built on the premise of cheap oil. We buy the big house in the suburb and get around in a car. Our economic and social development is based on the car. We drive to work, use the car for shopping and taking our kids to school. As long as oil is reasonably priced, we can afford to lead this type of life. As a nation, we consume a quarter of the world’s energy production.

What happens if more of China’s citizens begin to live like us? We are a nation of 330 million while they are a nation of 1.5 billion. Is there enough extra oil production to go around? Lets not forget India with their population of 1 billion. The harsh truth is there is not enough oil to go around. The recent correction in oil prices in my opinion is just a lull before the price of oil goes up again. The United States is competing with other nations to secure a reliable source of energy.

The country’s current and future economic prosperity relies on a stable source of energy. Even if alternative fuels such as ethanol, wind power and solar energy takes off, it won’t be enough to significantly replace fossil burning fuels. As Americans, we will have to change the way that we live. We will have to switch to more efficient vehicles, take public transportation, live in smaller houses and live closer to where we work.

There will probably be more wars and political unrest as nations try to secure commodity resources. To stay in power and keep the population happy, the economy needs to continue to grow. If it weren’t for the vast oil reserves, we would not be directing huge amounts of our resources to the Middle East.

January 19, 2007

The Need To Stay Armed and Dangerous

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 2:25 pm

In the ideal world, we would have no weapons of mass destruction and massive armies. The billions of dollars spent on the military can instead be re-directed towards feeding the poor, curing the sick and cleaning up our environment. The world would be a whole lot better for it. The reality is we need the good guys to be armed and dangerous in order to protect the world from rogue nations. The crazy dictator is less likely to declare war on a nation that has a very strong and capable military.

Do you think sending Richard Gere and the Dalai Lama to North Korea to persuade Kim Jong II to devotes more resources to his people instead of the miliary? If South Korea wasn’t so well armed, the North would have ran it over a long time ago. Do you actually beleive that Dictator Kim will be moved by talks about peace and love? This is a man who sanctioned kidnappings of other nationals, the shooting down of a civilian airline and allowed millions of his people to starve to death. Remember the food and oil program that Jimmy Carter negociated in return for halting their nuclear program? Now there’s talk that the North Koreans will be testing a second nuclear bomb.

Now we have the Chinese testing an anti-satellite weapon. This a nation where human rights are abused and corruption runs rampant. If left unchecked, they could forseably over run the whole Asian region. To keep these nations in check, you have the United States with its military might and presence. Just remember what happened to the peace loving French when they got over-runned by the Germans during the second world war.

The sad reality is the world needs a U.S. super power. The prosperity and order of the world depends on it. Just don’t tell the French. They’re still busy deluding themselves that they are the next super power.

January 18, 2007

Retaining Key Employees

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 10:48 am

Anybody scanning the headlines know the challenges that businesses face with staffing. You cannot grow and prosper if you can’t hire the right people. With an aging population, lower birth rates and a strong global economy, the competition for talented people is just heating up. The trick is how do you attract and retain good people. Looking at Fortune’s latest issue featuring the best 100 companies to work for provides some insight.

Here are some practices of companies mentioned on this list.

1. Flexibility: Employees set their own schedules and work from where they want.

2. Empowering the staff: Give employees the responsibility to get the job done and to make the necessary improvements.

3. Loyalty Programs: Provide benefits and training for employees including sabbaticals.

4. Keep employees excited, happy and motivated.

Companies realize that losing good employees will hurt their bottom line and competitiveness. In the long run, having motivated and loyal employees makes
for a prosperous organization.

The newer generation of workers put more emphasis on a balanced life. They’re not willing to give all to their employers without some form of reciprocation. Either through their parents or themselves, the corporate restructurings put into question blind loyalty for their employer. The relationship between employer and employee is a two way street.

It’s basic common sense. Show employees consideration, trust and respect, and they’ll reciprocate. It’s reflected on how they treat the employers and their clients. Things do come full circle.

January 16, 2007

Private Equity Firms

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 10:51 am

During the past months, you heard of formerly public companies being bought out by private equity firms and taken private. The advantage is that these now private companies are no longer at the mercy of short sighted shareholders who demand strong quarterly results. These companies can now focus on building a viable prosperous business over the long term. Another advantage is that these companies no longer have to maintain costly requirements for Sarbanes-Oxley Financial and Accounting Disclosure Information. Millions of dollars in governance are saved annually.

Public companies that went private include Burlington Coat Factory, William Lyon Homes and Goody’s Family Clothing. A likely public company candidate is one that is not executing properly and the shares trade at a discount to its peers. The logic for the private equity firm is they acquire this public company at a reasonable price and turn it around, significantly increasing its worth.

High profile former CEO’s are being wooed by these private equity firms to run these former public companies. For the executive, they no longer have to deal with stock analysts, pesky shareholders and public outcry over their pay packages. Recent CEO’s being courted include Bob Nardelli formerly of Home Depot and John Browne formerly of BP.

Like a good trader or a general, private equity firms likely have an exit strategy. Sure the trend now is for public companies to go private, but it can reverse at anytime. If the price is right, you can bet that the private equity firm will sell to the public. Like anything else in the capital markets, market cycles are the rule of thumb. Nothing lasts forever.

January 15, 2007

Don’t Get Comfortable With Cheaper Gasoline

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 1:33 pm

The price of oil last checked is at approximately $53, 33% of its $78 high. A gallon of gasoline, retailing over $3 last year is now comfortably in the $2 range. Does this mean that the oil crisis has passed? We all can go back to our old consuming ways? We can trade in our wimpy Toyota Prius for a manly sized Ford Expedition. Don’t bet the farm on it. 

The respite in oil prices is just a pause before it goes higher again. On a global level, demand is still going up. The problem is oil production is hard pressed to keep up with demand. Most of the easy to get cheap oil are already found. The promising oil reserves are predominantly found in unfreindly, politically unstable nations where China is locking in supply agreements. Other significant oil discoveries are found deep in the ocean where it can be very difficult and costly to extract.

Being who we are as Americans, we beleive that we have a God given right to cheap gas. The harsh reality is we have to change our consuming habits or risk putting our nation’s prosperity and security in peril. The Chinese are driving more and eating more meat. This type of lifestyle requires a lot of oil to substain it. They are not going back to riding bicycles and eating a predominantly vegetarian diet. They want what we have. This applies  to other developing  nations such as India.

The best way to cut our oil consumption is through higher prices. This will force is to be more efficient in the way that we use energy. If not, we will be at the mercy of the dictators and oil barons. So hold on to that hybrid car, make less trips to the all you can gorge buffet and even downsize your home. The era of a prosperous economy based on cheap oil is coming to a close. Get used to it.

 

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January 12, 2007

Beckham coming to the USA for $250M

Filed under: Stock News — bigdaddy @ 10:37 am

Now this is a headline that caught my attention. For those who do not follow soccer or celebrity gossip, Britain’s pretty boy star player David Bechham will be playing for the Los Angeles Galaxy in reported 5 year deal worth an estimated $250 million. Can this famous soccer player married to former Spice Girl Victoria Posh make soccer popular in the New World? I doubt it.

If Wayne Gretzky, one of the greatest player in the history of the game of hockey, cannot put hockey on the map in America, I doubt Beckham can do the same for soccer. Despite ice hockey’s speed, body checks and fights, it did not capture Americans imagination. Soccer is a much slower game with little goal scoring. I think Americans would rather watch Canadian football than watch soccer. Soccer also has to compete with other popular sports such as NASCAR, baseball and poker tournaments. Sure you’ll get some Hollywood stars showing up at the stadium to watch their celebrity freind play but the novelty will quickly wear off especially it they don’t win.

I figure that Team Beckham and its sponsors knew that a move to the U.S. is the last opportunity for them to cash in before his star power totally fades. For them it’s not about promoting soccoer in America but promoting David Beckham. The goal is boosting sales of  Beckham licensed products and those of his sponsors. This athlete is more likely to grace the celebrity pages than the sports pages.

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